PVC spot market
The mainstream transaction prices in the domestic PVC market have been lowered on the first day after the holiday, resulting in a weaker atmosphere in the spot market. Most upstream production enterprises maintain stable factory quotations, with some companies lowering their selling prices by 50 yuan/ton to promote transactions on the first day after the holiday. However, the first-generation traders in the spot market have a more wait-and-see mentality and have not signed many actual orders. The intraday weakness of the futures market is evident, with a slight decrease in the Buy It Now offer compared to before the holiday. Overall, there are not many actual orders, and there is hardly any inquiry or transaction in the high offer. The operating atmosphere in the spot market is generally average, while the basis offer is also limited due to the short period of low futures prices. Overall, downstream product companies have low purchasing enthusiasm, strong wait-and-see intention, and the overall market atmosphere is weak.
PVC aftermarket forecast
In terms of futures: PVC09 contract futures jumped short and opened low, with the futures price rapidly falling below the support position of the lower track. Among them, 26.3% of the short opening compared to 23.4% of the long opening is still in a suppressed trend. On a technical level, it shows that the Bollinger bands (13, 13, 2) are diverging, but after the futures price fell below the lower track, there was a certain buying power in the market, and then the futures price returned to the beginning of the 6 word period for volatility. Firstly, the significant decline in external crude oil during the May Day holiday is bearish for the domestic market. Despite the weak fundamentals of PVC, it is difficult to break out of a good rebound trend. The bearish power of the market continues and is relatively obvious. With the overall situation of the two markets still not improving after entering May, it is expected that the futures price will not perform well in the short term. Continue to observe the performance in the range of up and down 5930-6080 at 6000.
In terms of spot goods, the upstream production enterprises that returned after the holiday did not make too many adjustments. In the absence of sufficient signing of contracts in the area, it can be seen that the current wait-and-see mentality in the spot market is relatively heavy. In the current weak operation of the futures and spot markets, most merchants will not engage in low-level hoarding behavior, and after the downstream part restocked before the May Day holiday, The fact that spot prices do not rise but fall also makes it difficult for some traders who have orders in the early stage to ship, and the hedging points around the 6-character mark are not suitable. However, given the current slow pace of spot transactions, intermediaries in the spot market are in an awkward situation. During the holiday period, crude oil prices in the outer market plummeted significantly, and investors became increasingly concerned about the banking crisis and global economic prospects. The resulting short selling frenzy caused the oil market to experience the most severe oversold in two years. Among them, the WTI crude oil futures settlement price fell by 11.3% during the May Day holiday, and the Brent crude oil futures settlement price fell by 10.5%. On May 3rd, the Federal Reserve raised the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 5.00% -5.25%, a cumulative increase of 500 basis points since the rate hike. Overall, the PVC spot market price will continue to operate at a low level in the short term.
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